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The signal behind the noise — event probabilities for traders

Most traders react to events. Signal helps you anticipate them — surfacing probabilities on high-impact macro, geopolitical, and corporate events before they move markets.

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What Signal covers
Macro
Central bank decisions
Rate decisions, forward guidance shifts, dot plot surprises — before the market fully prices them in.
Geopolitical
World events
Conflicts, elections, trade agreements, sanctions — events with real market consequences that are hard to price.
Corporate
Earnings & catalysts
Guidance beats, M&A, regulatory decisions — probability-weighted before the announcement, not after.
How it works
01
We find the divergence
We look for events where market pricing and underlying data tell different stories. That gap is where edge lives.
02
We build the case
Alt data, options flow, futures markets, and independent analysis — synthesised into explicit probability estimates with visible reasoning.
03
We publish the score
After every event we publish our calibration score publicly. No hiding from bad calls. Accountability is the product.
What's in every report
THE THESIS
Your clear divergence from consensus — stated plainly, with no hedging.
PROBABILITY TABLE
Every scenario, weighted with explicit reasoning — not vibes.
THE SIGNALS
The data behind the probabilities — what moved the needle and why.
TRADE IMPLICATIONS
What each scenario means for specific assets and positions.
THE WILDCARDS
What would make us wrong. Stress-tested, not glossed over.
CALIBRATION SCORE
Published post-event. Our track record, visible to everyone.
Free for waitlist members
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Who it's for
Active traders
who want edge before an event, not analysis after it
Prediction markets
Polymarket users who think in probabilities, not headlines
Serious readers
who want to understand events, not just react to them